Friday, January 27, 2012
The 70% chance of a powerful earthquake in the next four years.
Living in Japan means living with natural disasters, especially earthquakes. Because of this, elementary schools often conduct emergency drills. Japanese people, even small children, know what to do when earthquakes happen. However, different preparations for earthquakes are carried out in different areas of the country.
It has been predicted for perhaps about 40 years that Shizuoka prefecture/静岡県 has the highest chance of being struck by a powerful earthquake. Because of this, the area has been paying the greatest attention to earthquake preparation. I've heard that many schools there require their students to wear helmets on the way to and from school. The residents have been making great efforts to make their houses more earthquake resistant.
Many years ago, when some friends of mine who were raised in Osaka moved to Tokyo, all of them told me that the frequency of earthquakes in Tokyo was much higher than in Osaka. They said that they were surprised to see that people in Tokyo were used to earthquakes. At the time, people in Tokyo paid more attention to preparing themselves for earthquakes than in Osaka.
I've been living in the Tokyo area recently, but I was raised mainly in Osaka. I don't remember feeling any earthquake during my childhood. I'm sure I experienced them, but I don't think they were strong and frequently enough for me to remember. In contrast, my friend who was raised in the Tokyo area says that even when he was a child, he already considered earthquakes to be an inevitable part of life.
Contrary to the aforementioned prediction, which was first made many years ago, a powerful earthquake has yet to hit Shizuoka (I'm not sure exactly when the first announcement was made. Maybe 40 or 50 years ago). Instead, at least ten massive earthquakes, including the 3/11 one, have struck other areas in the past three decades. If I include high magnitude earthquakes which didn't cause significant damage, the number will soar. The Great Hanshin Earthquake in Kobe, next to Osaka, in 1997, which killed about 6500 people, caught people off guard since the frequency of earthquakes in that area had been low and no powerful earthquake had been expected there. Under these circumstances, I have always assumed that a massive earthquakes could happen anywhere in Japan and one is sure to hit my area sooner or later.
A few days ago, the earthquake research institute at Tokyo University announced that the chance of a powerful earthquake with a magnitude of 7 or more striking the southern part of metropolitan Tokyo in the next four years is as high as 70%. The institute said that the possibility of a massive earthquake hitting Tokyo in the near future has become higher in the wake of the 3/11 earthquake. Although the Japanese government already announced last year that Tokyo has a 70 % chance of being hit by a powerful earthquake in the next 30 years, it seems that the phrase, "in the next four years," is shocking to people. To be honest, I was a little shocked when I first read the news, but a few minutes later, I realized that it was nothing new. However, this announcement warns that the Tokyo area is due for a powerful earthquake, so we are strongly urged to pay more attention to preparing ourselves for it.
